The economy is falling, the economy is falling

No, Chicken Little, it really isn’t. There are plenty of avenues of criticism regarding Trump, but the economy isn’t one of them. 

The current state of the U.S. economy, by the numbers. 

Gross Domestic Product

Q3 2024: 2.9%

Q4 2025: 4.4%

Comment: Remember when Trump was elected and started his tariff barrage and economists were predicting a recession? As you can see, it never happened. 

Consumer Price Index

2024: 3.4%

2025: 2.7%

Comment: CPI is considered the most accurate indicator for inflation. The Federal Reserve's target for price stability is 2% annually. Closer, but still not there. 

Jobs Added 

2024: 1.2 million (Unemp. Rate: 4.0%)

2025: 600K (Unemp. Rate: 4.4%)

Comment: You will likely see jobs added in 2024 nearer 2.2 million. That number is before the Bureau of Labor Statistics reduced the actual number by about 900 thousand. The 2025 number includes 317 thousand federal employee reduction, due in part to the Trump administration’s Fork in the Road program.

Wage Increase

2024: 3.9%

2025: 3.8%

Comment: The slight difference in lower wage increase is consistent with the post-COVID trend. In 2023, the wage increase was 4.4%. Wage increases now outpace inflation. 

Stock Market at Year End (Dow)

2024: 42,544

2025: 48,063

Comment: While this is a substantial year-by-year increase, a fair evaluation requires a percent increase. In each year, the Dow increased about 13%. It is commonly held that the stock market only benefits the rich; however, it also benefits 62% of the U.S. population—primarily through pension plans. 

Dollar Value (DXY)

2024: 108.44

2025: 98.26

Comment: The DXY (US Dollar Index) is a measure of the U.S. dollar's value against six major world currencies (Euro, Yen, Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc). This is a significant drop and has been dubbed “The Great Softening.” Economists point to volatile trade policy, other countries closing the AI gap, and a reduction of U.S. dollars in foreign banks as reserves (20-year low). 

National Debt

2024: - $36.2 Trillion

2025: - $38.5 Trillion

Comment: With a trillion dollars in annual interest payments, it’s the national debt version of the Myth of Sisyphus. No president this century has seen a reduction in the national debt during his term. President Trump attacked the issue with DOGE, which was mostly a failure. If there is a silver lining, the bulk of the interest payments on the national debt go to U.S. citizens and businesses. 

Evaluation: As you can see, the U.S. economy is not floundering. It is actually functioning quite well overall. Don’t let the people who hate anything Trump convince you otherwise. 

Albert DeSimone

Bishop